Abundant scarcity
At this time of year, it’s hard to escape abundance. The decorations, the food, the mountains of gifts, all signs of a season that doesn’t do “understated.” Whether you’re stringing up 3,000 fairy lights or figuring out how to fit a turkey the size of a small car into your oven, this time of year is unapologetically over the top. But amidst all this festive overload, it’s worth pondering how abundance and scarcity seem to dance around each other, especially when technology gets involved.
I’ve written a lot over the years about the information and digital economies opening up new opportunities. Peter Diamandis and Steve Kotler summed up the concept of abundance in their book “Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think” by saying “Technology is a resource-liberating mechanism. It can make the once scarce the now abundant.” They argue technology is making everything more accessible from renewable energy to biotech and even creativity. And they’re right. Just look at generative AI. Suddenly, anyone with an internet connection can whip up a poem, draft an essay, or create an image in seconds. What used to require years of study or expensive software is now practically free.
Diamandis has gone on to say that “Something is often scarce until you create a technology that enables abundance.” But abundance has a secret, it’s not as free as it looks. Generative AI, for all its magic, runs on giant data centres that drain the electricity from the grid like there’s no tomorrow. And those data centres? They’re built with scarce materials like rare earth metals, which sound exotic but really just mean “we don’t have much of them.” So, while AI feels infinite, it’s actually propped up by very finite resources.
The same story plays out in other technologies such solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles. They promise clean energy and freedom from fossil fuels, in abundance. But, they rely on materials like lithium and cobalt, which are harder to find than a spare seat on a flight at this time of year. So, for every step forward, there’s a reminder that scarcity is never too far behind.
However, scarcity isn’t all bad. Sometimes, it’s what gets us moving. EV makers, for example, are working on alternatives to lithium-based batteries. Renewable energy is booming because we can’t keep burning fossil fuels forever. Even generative AI was born out of the need to maximise the use of existing data, creating something apparently infinite from something limited. Scarcity, it turns out, has a way of forcing us to be innovative.
It’s not just tech where this happens. Think about gold, still the go-to “safe bet” for uncertain times. Or Bitcoin, which has built its whole identity around being scarce. People like knowing there’s a fixed supply of something, especially when everything else feels uncertain. Scarcity, in a way, is a source of trust.
Even businesses get in on the act. Limited-edition sneakers? Gone in 60 seconds. Exclusive memberships? Sign me up! And yes, even generative AI isn’t immune. There are premium versions and extra features that cost more, proving that even in the world of infinite possibilities, we still like things to feel a little exclusive. Scarcity sells, and we fall for it every time.
So the festive season takeaway is that abundance and scarcity are like those relatives who argue at lunch but secretly love each other. They’re inseparable, and they shape everything around us. The vision of an abundant future is exciting, but it only works if we figure out how to manage the scarcities that underpin it. Whether it’s energy, materials, or even our time, we can’t just pretend the limits don’t exist.
As we settle into the holiday season, stuffed with food and surrounded by an explosion of wrapping paper, it’s worth reflecting on how abundance is made. Every overflowing plate and blinking light has a story, and often, that story involves something scarce. The challenge for all of us, in work and in life, is finding the balance. After all, too much abundance and we lose sight of what matters; too much scarcity and, well, no one wants that. And in the meantime, let’s enjoy the festive excess. After all, Christmas only comes once a year!