Metaverse or multiverse?

Somewhere at the back of a draw in my study is the title to an acre of land on the Moon.  It was a legitimate (and inexpensive) purchase governed by one of many innovative, if somewhat speculative, schemes (given to me as a birthday present, I hasten to add).  Perhaps it’s grown in value in the interceding years, but I very much doubt it!

Facebook may have rebranded to Meta and almost immediately seen its market value slashed, but the idea of the metaverse has taken off as a result.  There is now a virtual land grab with a hope for the same sort of riches speculators wish they’d made by investing in crypto when it first emerged.

But what is the metaverse and should we all be buying virtual land there?  There are many definitions of what it is, but at their core they all start with a virtual reality space where avatars that represent our best selves can interact.  In some versions of the metaverse, the focus is on game-like realism whereas in others it is about easily navigating complex information and services using real world metaphors.

Most recently, it has become popular to talk about the metaverse as part of Web3.  Again, there are many definitions of Web3 but broadly it is using blockchain to distribute information and functionality rather than relying on a small number of central servers and services.  Web3 would also, according to many of its proponents, enable the transfer of value (cryptocurrency) as an integral part of its distributed commercial model.

With dozens or more of projects racing to build metaverses, there is little doubt that the market will be given the opportunity to decide what the future should look like.  It is impressive that a number are already selling, to willing buyers, virtual real estate in their still emerging worlds which either suggests that the market is ready or that speculation knows no bounds!  While it is as hard as always to put a value on this sort of transaction the best place to start is somewhere between the cost of production (programming) and the potential future utility (as a proportion of the global economy).

Today, each virtual property is generally kitted out like a real home or storefront which requires creativity and programming time to craft.  Buyers hope that this effort creates a place that they will enjoy sharing with friends and colleagues as they start to invite guests.  Perhaps this is the next evolution of the virtual Zoom background!  Buyers should, however, be careful because companies like Meta are busy creating AI to automate the building of these metaverse properties, taking today’s programming effort to almost zero if they succeed.

The future utility of metaverse properties is even more speculative.  Proponents of Bitcoin argue for future growth based on the assumption that commerce will make the move to cryptocurrency in the future.  Similarly, metaverse investors believe that future business will be conducted in the metaverse and a purchase in virtual central business district today will be a rare, hence valuable, resource tomorrow.

Of course, buying in a metaverse assumes that the chosen world will be successful and won’t ultimately fail like a 2020s version of Second Life.  We can expect there to be more than one metaverse which means either interoperability will be essential in the future, or we can expect to see a few big winners and many failed metaverses.

The Web3’s blockchain foundations particularly open-up the possibility of regular forking just as we’ve seen in cryptocurrencies creating a proliferation of currency options.  Conceivably, whenever virtual reality disputes arise, a fork could be created, and the two realities diverge.  In quantum physics this is called a “multiverse” and perhaps we could risk the same happening to our metaverse future causing confusion and devaluing assets.

The winning approach to a metaverse is likely to leapfrog some of the early compromises that plague every innovation.  Such new technology almost always gets stuck with the metaphors of the past until designers find unique and more efficient ways to approach the problem.  Often those metaphors look beautiful such as the rendering of a book on an e-reader which quickly gives way to stripped-down navigation and plain text or the short-lived, but very attractive, animated Microsoft Office Assistant which served no better purpose than a help box.

If the metaverse is to thrive, it can’t simply be a game where it replicates the real world as a novelty, it needs to provide genuine benefits for commerce, business, and its users.  Collaboration, communication, and commerce must intersect.  But, perhaps, its real challenge is that it is trying to take us fully virtual just as the fourth industrial revolution is finally taking hold, moving computing from the virtual into every aspect of our physical world.  Most of us want to keep a foot firmly planted in both.